2011 World Series - Best Pitchers*

* according to Bill James' Game Score

And the WINNER is...DEREK HOLLAND!

Another entry into the DUH! Column during my Postseason Game Score review, but this quaint exercise wasn’t intended to overstate the underobvious…Holland’s performance in Game 4 was nearly “Carpenter-worthy,” by these numbers alone.

Before we start this round of jousting, let’s review Bill James' Game Score real quick.

In case you didn't know, "Game Score" is a neat and easy and FUN way to look at a starting pitcher's line in a Box Score and apply a basic formula on the stats to come up with a fundamental 'score' that "determines the strength of a pitcher in any particular baseball game.

To determine a starting pitcher's game score:

1.Start with 50 points.
2.Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched.
3.Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
4.Add 1 point for each strikeout.
5.Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
6.Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
7.Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
8.Subtract 1 point for each walk.

The maximum possible score in a 9-inning game with no baserunners allowed is 114, but of course this is possible only if the starting pitcher goes nine innings, strikes out every single batter he faces, and faces no more than 3 batters per inning. The exception to this gets a little hairy mathematically, but is never impossible...because this is baseball.

FYI, the highest game score for a 9-inning game in the history of baseball happened on May 6, 1998, when Kerry "Kid K" Wood famously struck out 20 Astros at Wrigley Field. Yowsah, that Game Score was 105.

So I thought it would be a "hoot" to compile Game Score for all SP during the postseason; I started this at the close of the League Division Series; you can review the LDS results at this post. I then continued with the League Championship Series; you can review the LCS results at this post. The fall classic is over…now begin the DARK TIMES!! Let’s look at Game Score for the 7 games of the WORLD SERIES then…the top 5 winners:

Derek Holland (82) 10/23/11 STL @ TEX WS G4
Jaime Garcia (77) 10/20/11 TEX @ STL WS G2
Colby Lewis (64) 10/20/11 TEX @ STL WS G2
Chris Carpenter (59) 10/24/11 STL @ TEX WS G5
Chris Carpenter (57) 10/19/11 TEX @ STL WS G1

Here we see more variation among the top 5 than in the LCS. Also, observing that the median (51.5) and mean (53.1) in all WS Game Scores is similar to the same values found in the LDS (median: 50, mean: 50.6), right around the 50-53 range. In the LCS, the median (41.5) and mean (41.4) were nearly ten points below this baseline. What we know now is that the LCS really didn’t feature as much stud pitching strength as the WS and LDS did.

In the World Series, 14 starting pitchers worked an average of 5.45 innings (in baseball math, a little closer to 5.1 innings), closer to the average innings of the LDS (5.2) than the LCS (4.2). I attributed the drop in innings (and, in some statistically weighted hindsight, the overall Game Score values) during the LCS to ‘clutch pitching change’ strategy. Did we see this in the World Series? Sure thing…but with less games as a sample, I suppose the difference didn’t impact the overall score.

What’s interesting to note is that if Holland had stayed in for just one more out, he would have usurped Chris Carpenter’s LDS-topping performance according to Game Score by only one point…that’s how damn good he was!

Other interesting notes I made, regarding the top 5:
Chris Carpenter occupied 2 of the top 5 slots (3 of the top 6), for his highest score he was not awarded a decision and the Cardinals lost the game.
The 2nd highest score in the top 5 also got a “No Decision” and the Cardinals lost the game (Garcia).
The top 2 pitchers earned their scores at home (Holland, Garcia).
3 of the top 5 earned “No Decisions” as SP (Garcia, Lewis, Carpenter).
2 of the top 5 scores occurred in the same game (Garcia, Lewis; WS G2).
The NL dominated the top 7 games scored out of 14, with 4 of the 7…which also happens to be the line on the NL Cardinals’ World Series win; 4 games to 3.

Apparently, bullpen strength prevailed where Garcia and Carpenter did not in Game 2 and Game 5 (but they still were strong as SP, according to Game Score).

In general (all 14 pitchers with starts in the WS):
Lowest score – Matt Harrison (35) 10/22/11 STL @ TEX WS G3
Lowest score, 4 innings minimum – Matt Harrison (39) TEX @ STL WS G7
Lowest score by a winning pitcher – Chris Carpenter (55) 10/28/11 TEX @ STL WS G7
Average Game Score by SP in the 2011 World Series: 53.1

You can review my work on the spreadsheet on Google Docs.

This was a fun exercise from me. I’m hoping I’ve encouraged some of you to try Game Score at home or at the ballpark on your own sometime.

If you enjoy my work, I encourage you to spread the word via Twitter
(I am @yoshiki89), and also please leave a comment!

10/20/11 Texas Rangers 2, St Louis Cardinals 1

Busch Stadium, St Louis, MO
2011 World Series Game 2

It’s all about the “D”…and two great reel-worthy plays!!


Can it be true that after only 1 game my expectations of this World Series are burying the memories of last year’s Ho-hum Classic? This game makes it so.



Yet another pitchers’ duel develops as Jaime Garcia and Colby Lewis show off #1 starter stuff, neither yielding a run, only allowing 2 hits apiece for the first 6 innings. Garcia, though not awarded a decision, pulled ahead of Lewis with 7 scoreless innings, 3 hits, 1 BB and 7K…and 3 broken bats!!

I will have to dig a bit to confirm, but I think this is the most bats broken in a game by a single pitcher that I have ever scored…

Defense from both teams, along with the stellar starting pitching, was the true highlight, but the Rangers ran away with the prize. Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler are the double-play combo of the game, if not the Series so far. They did it not once, but twice; contributing two eye-rubbing plays to end the 4th and 5th innings.

With the game locked at a scoreless tie in the bottom of the 7th, history more or less repeats itself…funny how the events in last night’s game replayed themselves, as if there was no regard to what happened only 24 hours before. With Freese on base, thanks to a 1-out single, Yadier Molina flies out, Nick Punto reaches on a single (Freese advances to 3B), and with 2 outs and runners on the corners, Washington pulls Lewis and brings in…Alexi Ogando. LaRussa brings in who else but Allen Craig in Garcia’s spot in the order…so what do you think will happen next???

It happens…Craig does it again, with a rocket to RF, scoring Freese and Ogando shaking his head…it’s ‘de ja vu all over again’!!

The inning ends with the Cardinals up by one and a Nick Punto TOOTBLAN (or should it be ROOTBLAN?) as he is ruled out at 3B for running outside the basepaths. WAAAYYY out.

The Cardinals stay on top with that single run on the board, Nelson Cruz robs Pujols of a sure-fire HR in the 8th, and Jason Motte steps in to close things out…and the Rangers come back, again with Kinsler and Andrus leading the charge. They both get on base to lead off, two consecutive SAC flys from Josh Hamilton and Michael Young bring them both in, and the Rangers squeak out a hard-fought win with Neftali Feliz shutting the Cardinals down. And they do it without any extra base hits.

Is Ian Kinsler on a campaign to walk away with the World Series MVP trophy? It’s too early to tell, but he is the real unsung hero of this Rangers team, and also a valid source of comic relief, as demonstrated when he “brushes off” a blistering Adrian Beltre foul line drive down the 3rd base line.

Series tied 1-1



He said WHAT?!? Click on this link to see Tim McCarver’s Quote of the Game

HEY, I want your feedback!
If you enjoy my work, I encourage you to spread the word via Twitter
(I am @yoshiki89), and also please leave a comment!

6/3/11 Chicago Cubs 1, St Louis Cardinals 6

Busch Stadium, St Louis, MO
Game 1 of 3


Image borrowed from this famous post on “A League of Her Own”

Yes, he’s a CARDINAL now…



STL highlights:
• Ryan Theriot continues his 17-game hitting streak with a lead-off double to start the Cardinals’ 1st inning
• Albert Pujols hits his 100th HR at Busch Stadium 3 with 1 on and 0 out in the 5th inning; his 418th career HR, his 48th HR vs. the Cubs, his 7th HR courtesy of Ryan Dempster
• Lance Berkman is charged with a throwing error yet knocks a 3 run HR in the first inning, also against Dempster
• Jaime Garcia pitches like, alas, Jaime Garcia

CHC highlights:
• DJ LeMahieu gets his first MLB hit (a single) in the 8th inning
• Lou Montanez’ RBI double is the only other significant Cubs offense
• Cubs do not win

3/24/11 St Louis Cardinals 3, New York Mets 16

Digital Domain Park, Port St Lucie, FL

Ahem. Did I just go out on a limb only a few days ago, by publicly announcing that, yes, I think the Cardinals will be more formidable than many people realize, and that Jaime Garcia may be one of the best pitchers in the NL that nobody's talking about (that much)? Yes, that was me. This game should be no indicator, it is Spring Training and if this one REALLY counted, LaRussa would have given Garcia the hook instead of leaving him in to 'get out of it.' What "it" was, was the Mets.



This reminded me of a Spring Training exercise 2 years ago, indeed, my very first post...I am much more comfortable with the lineup changes and a bit more adept at scoring the game...it was really the lopsided advantage displayed by the Mets, nearly making their opponent hapless in nature. But this is the CARDINALS, I mean...no way...

Chris Capuano pitched an unreasonably great game for the Mets, going 5 innings, allowing 8 hits and 3 earned runs. Garcia on the other hand...uff da! Things were going great for Garcia, just a coupla runs in the first (from a David Wright 1 out 1 on HR), no biggie...with 2 outs in the 4th, Brad Emaus reaches on a single, Schumaker commits an inning-changing error, and that really starts the commotion. Emaus' single would start a run of 9 consecutive hits for the Mets over 2 innings. Garcia leaves the game after 4 innings, 78 pitches, giving up 14 hits (OUCH), 10 runs (only 3 earned) and just one strikeout.

If you like games with gross offensive display...this game was just fine with that. the Mets launched 4 HR as a team, big blasts like those of Matt Den Dekker and pinch-hitter Josh Thole (who hit the ball so far it ended up in the alligator pond outside the stadium) were legendary; besides Wright, Emaus (who went 4-4 for the day) and Angel pagan went yard.

The Cards did their best, but just got clobbered. They thanked goodness that Miguel Batista came along in the 7th and kept the Mets quiet for the rest of the game.

And if you haven't seen Lance Berkman the outfielder yet...he's just as good as you thought he would be. Only a little bit better than Jason Bay.