2011 World Series - Best Pitchers*

* according to Bill James' Game Score

And the WINNER is...DEREK HOLLAND!

Another entry into the DUH! Column during my Postseason Game Score review, but this quaint exercise wasn’t intended to overstate the underobvious…Holland’s performance in Game 4 was nearly “Carpenter-worthy,” by these numbers alone.

Before we start this round of jousting, let’s review Bill James' Game Score real quick.

In case you didn't know, "Game Score" is a neat and easy and FUN way to look at a starting pitcher's line in a Box Score and apply a basic formula on the stats to come up with a fundamental 'score' that "determines the strength of a pitcher in any particular baseball game.

To determine a starting pitcher's game score:

1.Start with 50 points.
2.Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched.
3.Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
4.Add 1 point for each strikeout.
5.Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
6.Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
7.Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
8.Subtract 1 point for each walk.

The maximum possible score in a 9-inning game with no baserunners allowed is 114, but of course this is possible only if the starting pitcher goes nine innings, strikes out every single batter he faces, and faces no more than 3 batters per inning. The exception to this gets a little hairy mathematically, but is never impossible...because this is baseball.

FYI, the highest game score for a 9-inning game in the history of baseball happened on May 6, 1998, when Kerry "Kid K" Wood famously struck out 20 Astros at Wrigley Field. Yowsah, that Game Score was 105.

So I thought it would be a "hoot" to compile Game Score for all SP during the postseason; I started this at the close of the League Division Series; you can review the LDS results at this post. I then continued with the League Championship Series; you can review the LCS results at this post. The fall classic is over…now begin the DARK TIMES!! Let’s look at Game Score for the 7 games of the WORLD SERIES then…the top 5 winners:

Derek Holland (82) 10/23/11 STL @ TEX WS G4
Jaime Garcia (77) 10/20/11 TEX @ STL WS G2
Colby Lewis (64) 10/20/11 TEX @ STL WS G2
Chris Carpenter (59) 10/24/11 STL @ TEX WS G5
Chris Carpenter (57) 10/19/11 TEX @ STL WS G1

Here we see more variation among the top 5 than in the LCS. Also, observing that the median (51.5) and mean (53.1) in all WS Game Scores is similar to the same values found in the LDS (median: 50, mean: 50.6), right around the 50-53 range. In the LCS, the median (41.5) and mean (41.4) were nearly ten points below this baseline. What we know now is that the LCS really didn’t feature as much stud pitching strength as the WS and LDS did.

In the World Series, 14 starting pitchers worked an average of 5.45 innings (in baseball math, a little closer to 5.1 innings), closer to the average innings of the LDS (5.2) than the LCS (4.2). I attributed the drop in innings (and, in some statistically weighted hindsight, the overall Game Score values) during the LCS to ‘clutch pitching change’ strategy. Did we see this in the World Series? Sure thing…but with less games as a sample, I suppose the difference didn’t impact the overall score.

What’s interesting to note is that if Holland had stayed in for just one more out, he would have usurped Chris Carpenter’s LDS-topping performance according to Game Score by only one point…that’s how damn good he was!

Other interesting notes I made, regarding the top 5:
Chris Carpenter occupied 2 of the top 5 slots (3 of the top 6), for his highest score he was not awarded a decision and the Cardinals lost the game.
The 2nd highest score in the top 5 also got a “No Decision” and the Cardinals lost the game (Garcia).
The top 2 pitchers earned their scores at home (Holland, Garcia).
3 of the top 5 earned “No Decisions” as SP (Garcia, Lewis, Carpenter).
2 of the top 5 scores occurred in the same game (Garcia, Lewis; WS G2).
The NL dominated the top 7 games scored out of 14, with 4 of the 7…which also happens to be the line on the NL Cardinals’ World Series win; 4 games to 3.

Apparently, bullpen strength prevailed where Garcia and Carpenter did not in Game 2 and Game 5 (but they still were strong as SP, according to Game Score).

In general (all 14 pitchers with starts in the WS):
Lowest score – Matt Harrison (35) 10/22/11 STL @ TEX WS G3
Lowest score, 4 innings minimum – Matt Harrison (39) TEX @ STL WS G7
Lowest score by a winning pitcher – Chris Carpenter (55) 10/28/11 TEX @ STL WS G7
Average Game Score by SP in the 2011 World Series: 53.1

You can review my work on the spreadsheet on Google Docs.

This was a fun exercise from me. I’m hoping I’ve encouraged some of you to try Game Score at home or at the ballpark on your own sometime.

If you enjoy my work, I encourage you to spread the word via Twitter
(I am @yoshiki89), and also please leave a comment!

10/28/11 Texas Rangers 2, St Louis Cardinals 6

Busch Stadium, St Louis, MO
2011 World Series Game 7

TLR in suspended shock as David Murphy’s fly ball to Left-Center field is about to land in Allen Craig’s glove…


The Cardinals finish the series in what would have been a relatively exciting game, but in comparison to game 5 and game 6 the yawn factor was induced for some viewers…but not for me. This game had a lot of thrilling and tactically interesting moments; it was less than a “cake walk” as suggested by some, and more of an example of how a team whose chances of winning go from slim to none to all the way in just a few games.



Chris Carpenter had a fantastic start, not anything akin to his 3-hit shutout of the Phillies on October 7th in the LDS, but hey…

The critical flaw for the Rangers tonight had to be the almost predictable short start of Matt Harrison, but only marginally so…the concept of tournament baseball notwithstanding, Harrison’s 3 ER in 4IP could have been met with another reliever other than Scott Feldman, who gave up 2ER (on 2BB and a HB, more on this in a moment) in 0.2 innings. Would bringing CJ Wilson down instead of Feldman in the 5th inning have changed anything? Probably not, but after some of the relief pitching miscues from the Ranger’s stall in the 2010 World Series, you might wonder…as I do.

A lead-off hit by Ian Kinsler, given the circumstances of Game 6, lethally ignites the Rangers and simultaneously threatens to stun the home crowd at Busch Stadium. Yadier Molina’s subsequent put-out of Kinsler attempting to steal 2nd base on an 0-0 count to Elvis Andrus slammed a rally door shut, symbolically, so early in the game. The Rangers still manage to eke out 2 runs during this frame after Andrus walks and Hamilton doubles him in, followed by a textbook Michael Young RBI double scoring Hamilton, but from where I was sitting the Kinsler CS was a bold statement by the Cardinals.

In response, to further underline this, Matt Harrison walks Pujols and Berkman with 2 outs. David Freese, in his first at-bat since his historic walk-off win in Game 6, drives a deep fly ball into the gap in left-center to tie the game.

Allen Craig delivers a 1-out HR courtesy of Harrison in the 3rd, putting the Cardinals in the lead. Harrison sweats a lot in the 4th inning, allowing 2 Cardinals to reach on back-to-back singles with 1 out. He breaks 2 of Skip Schumaker’s bats in the same AB; Schumaker grounds out to 1B, Carpenter flies out to RF to end the inning, stranding both baserunners, and Harrison is done for the evening.

Scott Feldman picks up the ball in the 5th…again, why not CJ Wilson? After retiring Theriot (and breaking his bat as well) Feldman walks Allen Craig and hits Albert Pujols, who both advance on a Lance Berkman groundout… that’s 2 on, 2 outs, and David Freese is intentionally walked so that Feldman can pitch to Yadier Molina. Freese is 1-for-2 so far; I have no strength as a baseball strategist, but I am a vocal dislike of the intentional walk, even in “obvious” situations. So to me, this is less than obvious as to why Freese gets the IBB; I would give Mike Napoli a free pass way before David Freese but nonetheless, Molina is UNintentionally walked, walking in a run and giving the Cardinals a 2-run lead.

Just so you know, Matt Harrison also broke Pujols’ bat in the 3rd…so that’s a total of 4 BLS (Broken Louisville Sluggers, from my scoresheet notation) in the game, 3 of them by Harrison…

CJ Wilson’s very first pitch in relief of Feldman hits Rafael Furcal (who was shockingly 2-for-2 in this game, after being so silent offensively for so long), which allows Pujols to score. Feldman is charged with the run, Wilson shuts down Schumaker to end the inning, and is dominant until he is replaced by Mike Adams to start the 7th.

The real story from this point on is the Cardinals’ bullpen, carrying Chris Carpenter’s torch and handcuffing the Rangers for the rest of the game. Well, they had some help from Allen Craig in the 7th, who majestically robbed Nelson Cruz of a sure-fire solo HR in the 6th, but the line speaks for itself, the bullpen allowed no hits and no runs for the rest of the game, exclamation point.

And thus endeth by far, the best World Series I think I’ve seen in many, many years.

Cardinals win 4-3



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10/19/11 Texas Rangers 2, St Louis Cardinals 3

Busch Stadium, St Louis, MO
2011 World Series Game 1

Chris Carpenter demonstrates PFP in full force…


The 2011 World Series begins with a raucous battle between the Cardinals and the Rangers in St Louis. After a breathtaking LCS and LDS, I’m hoping that the Fall Classic will follow suit; after this game I think I have more than a hope!



Chris Carpenter and C.J. Wilson face off; Wilson hoping to get his first 2011 postseason win, Carpenter hoping to enjoy an outing at least half as fantastic as his stunning close-out of the LDS in Game 5 against the Phillies.

The pitchers’ duel ensues quickly, with great pitching from both parties and some outstanding “riot defense” by Carpenter in this outrageous play at first, where Pujols throws wide with Carpenter diving to receive the ball and sliding aggressively across the bag and directly underneath the feet of Elvis Andrus, who is charging down the baseline like a freight train and barely misses crushing Carpenter’s exposed hands under his Texas cleats. You could feel LaRussa and Duncan wince sharply as they watched this unfold…fortunately, no harm done. If it were a pitcher with less grit, you can expect a nightmare after a jump such as this.

The game is viciously and excitingly tied at 2-2 by the bottom of the 6th, when Wilson offers David Freese a 1-out double, a wild pitch to Yadier Molina that allows Freese to advance to 3B, and a walk to Nick Punto. Washington removes Wilson in favor of Alexi Ogando, who is great but does have his moments. LaRussa brings Allen Craig in Carpenter’s slot in the batting order, and Craig has a moment of his own, a clutch go-ahead single to RF on a 1-2 pitch, scoring Freese and putting the Cardinals in charge for the remainder of the contest, finishing with a thrilling 10-pitch Save by Jason Motte.

A few days before the Series began, Fox announced it would use “heat-vision” technology currently in use for European Cricket broadcasts (I don’t know enough about Cricket to comment on this)…as if TBS’ Liberovision during the postseason wasn’t enough kool (or not), Fox Hot Spot was brought on to help us…well, we weren’t really sure what it was going to help us with!! Fortunately, Hot Spot was used right away in this first game of the Series, to show us chumps at home that Adrian Beltre’s groundout to 3B in the top of the 9th was really a “shoe polish ball” -shades of Earl Weaver- that bounced off of Beltre’s foot. The replay video looked close, Hot Spot showed that it definitely popped his foot and should have been a foul.

Cardinals lead the Series 1-0



He said WHAT?!? Click on this link to see Tim McCarver’s Quote of the Game

HEY, I want your feedback!
If you enjoy my work, I encourage you to spread the word via Twitter
(I am @yoshiki89), and also please leave a comment!

2011 League Division Series - Best Pitchers*

* according to Bill James' Game Score

And the WINNER is...

CHRIS CARPENTER!

Now before you say "DUH" let's review Bill James' Game Score real quick.

In case you didn't know, "Game Score" is a neat and easy and FUN way to look at a starting pitcher's line in a Box Score and apply a basic formula on the stats to come up with a fundamental 'score' that "determines the strength of a pitcher in any particular baseball game.

To determine a starting pitcher's game score:

1.Start with 50 points.
2.Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched.
3.Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
4.Add 1 point for each strikeout.
5.Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
6.Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
7.Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
8.Subtract 1 point for each walk.

The maximum possible score in a 9-inning game with no baserunners allowed is 114, but of course this is possible only if the starting pitcher goes nine innings, strikes out every single batter he faces, and faces no more than 3 batters per inning. The exception to this gets a little hairy mathematically, but is never impossible...because this is baseball.

FYI, the highest game score for a 9-inning game in the history of baseball happened on May 6, 1998, when Kerry "Kid K" Wood famously struck out 20 Astros at Wrigley Field. Yowsah, that Game Score was 105.

So I thought it would be a "hoot" to complie Game Score for all SP during the postseason; now that the League Division Series is over...here are the results, and the top 5 winners:

Chris Carpenter (84) 10/7/11 STL @ PHI NLDS G5
Yovani Gallardo (78) 10/1/11 ARI @ MIL NLDS G1
Matt Moore (77) 9/30/11 TB @ TEX ALDS G1
Josh Collmenter (73) MIL @ ARI NLDS G3
Roy Halladay (72) STL @ PHI NLDS G5

Interesting notes I made, regarding the top 5:
Only 1 AL pitcher appeared in the top 5 (Moore)
Only 1 pitcher earned his score at home (Collmenter)
Only 1 pitcher did not win the game (Halladay)
Each of the 4 contending NL pitchers made the top 5

In general (all 38 pitchers with starts in the LDS):
Lowest score - Randy Wolf (14) 10/5/11 MIL @ ARI NLDS G4
Lowest score by a winning pitcher - Derek Holland (47) 10/1/11 TB @ TEX ALDS G2
Average Game Score by SP in the 2011 LDS: 50.6

So now you can say "DUH"...I think even folks who have been dead for several years said nothing less than "WOW" when Carp tossed his gem on 10/7/11 to efficiently help the Cardinals advance to the LCS...Halladay's top score as the losing pitcher in that very same game also speaks volumes to the level of competition seen during that game.

You can review my work on the spreadsheet on Google Docs.

I will continue to tally the Game Score for the LCS, and post the results when that phase of the postseason is over.

If you enjoy my work, I encourage you to spread the word via Twitter (I am @yoshiki89), and also please leave a comment!

10/2/11 St Louis Cardinals 5, Philadelphia Phillies 4

Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
NLDS Game 2

Allen Craig…he does it again!


Another postseason classic pitching match-up ensues; Cliff Lee versus Chris Carpenter at Citizens Bank Park: The CLASH of the TITANS!



The Phillies took game 1, and just like that the Cardinals’ win expectancy yielded a few percentage points when facing “the greatest rotation in history”…or so they say. Lee hangs in for 6 innings, fanning 9 batters, and outlasts a seemingly struggling Carpenter who leaves the game after three mushy innings (5H, 4ER, 3BB, 2K). It seems as if LaRussa is playing the tournament baseball game so soon in the NLDS; many ask “why?” but so few understand…there is no need to wait any longer, the Cardinals are still on a roll. TLR intends to keep it that way.

The majority of the Phillies’ damage to the Cardinals erupts in the very first inning, an exhaustive combination of patient plate discipline and timely hitting (in the first inning!) where 3 runs scored on 3 hits. Another run scores in the 2nd, and after 3 innings the Phils are up by four and the Cards are still scoreless.

The Cardinals find their teeth in the 4th, and do so immediately. After Lance Berkman’s full-count walk and David Freese is called out on strikes, Yadier Molina, Ryan Theriot, and John Jay open up a can of hot sauce and tag Lee for 3 runs on 4 hits, leaving 1 behind as Jay is thrown out at home on a 7-2 flyball by Rafael Furcal. We already know Carpenter is done when Nick Punto bats in his spot (and strikes out); LaRussa summons Fernando Salas to the mound and the game is on.

Salas handles the Phils with 3 groundouts, Lee returns in the 5th to strike out two and get Berkman to pop out but in the 6th, Theriot doubles and is brought home by another John Jay spray single. The inning ends with the score tied, and Lee at 101 pitches. The Cardinals take the lead in the 7th when Allen Craig belts a husky triple on a fly ball to CF and Albert Pujols’ go-ahead RBI single scores Craig easily. He does it again, Berkman reaches on a bloop single to RF, and Lee leaves the game after 110 pitches and 5 ER.

Of interesting note during this frame is Pujols’ exceptional attempt at a productive out, Freese’s dribbler bounces near the mound; with Pujols at 3rd and Placido Polanco recovering the ball, Pujols induces a 5-2 Fielder’s Choice rundown that allows sneaky Lance Berkman to advance from 1st to 3rd without a throw. Pujols claps joyously as he is tagged out by Carlos Ruiz and Berkman is standing on the bag, now in scoring position with only 1 out, and 2 men on base. This prompts an intentional walk to Molina, and the stage is perfectly set…until Theriot ends this crafty exercise by grounding into a 6-4-3 DP. You can’t knock Prince Albert for trying!

LaRussa brings on the bullpen now, as if he is negotiating a sinister chess match…well, he is. Marc Rzepczynski hits Chase Utley to start the 8th, and Hunter Pence hits a sure-fire double-play ball to Furcal. There are no easy outs; Utley masterfully breaks up the DP by uprooting Theriot at second. However, the Phillies are unable to score; TLR summons 2 more pitchers to face the next 2 batters with 1 on and 1 out and the shut down is executed.

The Phillies can’t touch Jason Motte, brought in for a 4-out Save, and the Cardinals slide their way into a win.

The attendance of 46,575 sets a Citizens Bank Park attendance record.

Series tied 1-1



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6/17/11 Kansas City Royals 5, St Louis Cardinals 4

Busch Stadium, St Louis, MO
Game 1 of 3


MOOOOOOOOOOOOSE!!!

How kool, the boy isn’t afraid to eat some dirt. A1 (that’s Alex Gordon) helped the Royals contend against the Cardinals early on with a bases-clearing single, but if it weren’t for Moose Mikestakas charging home plate face first to cross just in time on an error by Prince Albert Pujols…the game could have gone somewhere else.



Felipe Paulino let it all hang out in the 3rd inning, with the Cardinals batting around and scoring 4 times. Paulino has to learn, when the bases are loaded with 2 outs, this still isn’t a great time to pitch to Lance Berkman. At least not this year. But the Royals offense took advantage of “you get what you get and you don’t throw a fit” in capitalizing on an uncharacteristic shaky start by Chris Carpenter to scratch out 4 total runs in the first 4 innings to tie the game. All without an extra base hit by the Royals during the entire game.

While I’d usually say that TLR knows Carpenter best, he must not have read his tea leaves right today and left tall and goofy in for an inning too many, as the error-scoring face-first-slide run occurred during Carpenter’s last inning in the 8th…and with 2 outs already on the board.

By the way, I accidentally charged that 5th run to Carpenter…not in time to fix the scan but don’t worry, my paper copy has been revised.

This was St Louis’ 7th consecutive loss, and also the 3rd PIDP (popped into double play) I’ve scored in one month’s time after never scoring one in my life until now. Go figure.