The Baseball Enthusiast: game score

Showing posts with label game score. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

2011 World Series - Best Pitchers*

* according to Bill James' Game Score

And the WINNER is...

DEREK HOLLAND!

Another entry into the DUH! Column during my Postseason Game Score review, but this quaint exercise wasn’t intended to overstate the underobvious…Holland’s performance in Game 4 was nearly “Carpenter-worthy,” by these numbers alone.

Before we start this round of jousting, let’s review Bill James' Game Score real quick.

In case you didn't know, "Game Score" is a neat and easy and FUN way to look at a starting pitcher's line in a Box Score and apply a basic formula on the stats to come up with a fundamental 'score' that "determines the strength of a pitcher in any particular baseball game.

To determine a starting pitcher's game score:

1.Start with 50 points.
2.Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched.
3.Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
4.Add 1 point for each strikeout.
5.Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
6.Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
7.Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
8.Subtract 1 point for each walk.

The maximum possible score in a 9-inning game with no baserunners allowed is 114, but of course this is possible only if the starting pitcher goes nine innings, strikes out every single batter he faces, and faces no more than 3 batters per inning. The exception to this gets a little hairy mathematically, but is never impossible...because this is baseball.

FYI, the highest game score for a 9-inning game in the history of baseball happened on May 6, 1998, when Kerry "Kid K" Wood famously struck out 20 Astros at Wrigley Field. Yowsah, that Game Score was 105.

So I thought it would be a "hoot" to compile Game Score for all SP during the postseason; I started this at the close of the League Division Series; you can review the LDS results at this post. I then continued with the League Championship Series; you can review the LCS results at this post. The fall classic is over…now begin the DARK TIMES!! Let’s look at Game Score for the 7 games of the WORLD SERIES then…the top 5 winners:

Derek Holland (82) 10/23/11 STL @ TEX WS G4
Jaime Garcia (77) 10/20/11 TEX @ STL WS G2
Colby Lewis (64) 10/20/11 TEX @ STL WS G2
Chris Carpenter (59) 10/24/11 STL @ TEX WS G5
Chris Carpenter (57) 10/19/11 TEX @ STL WS G1

Here we see more variation among the top 5 than in the LCS. Also, observing that the median (51.5) and mean (53.1) in all WS Game Scores is similar to the same values found in the LDS (median: 50, mean: 50.6), right around the 50-53 range. In the LCS, the median (41.5) and mean (41.4) were nearly ten points below this baseline. What we know now is that the LCS really didn’t feature as much stud pitching strength as the WS and LDS did.

In the World Series, 14 starting pitchers worked an average of 5.45 innings (in baseball math, a little closer to 5.1 innings), closer to the average innings of the LDS (5.2) than the LCS (4.2). I attributed the drop in innings (and, in some statistically weighted hindsight, the overall Game Score values) during the LCS to ‘clutch pitching change’ strategy. Did we see this in the World Series? Sure thing…but with less games as a sample, I suppose the difference didn’t impact the overall score.

What’s interesting to note is that if Holland had stayed in for just one more out, he would have usurped Chris Carpenter’s LDS-topping performance according to Game Score by only one point…that’s how damn good he was!

Other interesting notes I made, regarding the top 5:
Chris Carpenter occupied 2 of the top 5 slots (3 of the top 6), for his highest score he was not awarded a decision and the Cardinals lost the game.
The 2nd highest score in the top 5 also got a “No Decision” and the Cardinals lost the game (Garcia).
The top 2 pitchers earned their scores at home (Holland, Garcia).
3 of the top 5 earned “No Decisions” as SP (Garcia, Lewis, Carpenter).
2 of the top 5 scores occurred in the same game (Garcia, Lewis; WS G2).
The NL dominated the top 7 games scored out of 14, with 4 of the 7…which also happens to be the line on the NL Cardinals’ World Series win; 4 games to 3.

Apparently, bullpen strength prevailed where Garcia and Carpenter did not in Game 2 and Game 5 (but they still were strong as SP, according to Game Score).

In general (all 14 pitchers with starts in the WS):
Lowest score – Matt Harrison (35) 10/22/11 STL @ TEX WS G3
Lowest score, 4 innings minimum – Matt Harrison (39) TEX @ STL WS G7
Lowest score by a winning pitcher – Chris Carpenter (55) 10/28/11 TEX @ STL WS G7
Average Game Score by SP in the 2011 World Series: 53.1

You can review my work on the spreadsheet on Google Docs.

This was a fun exercise from me. I’m hoping I’ve encouraged some of you to try Game Score at home or at the ballpark on your own sometime.

If you enjoy my work, I encourage you to spread the word via Twitter
(I am @yoshiki89), and also please leave a comment!

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

2011 League Championship Series - Best Pitchers*

* according to Bill James' Game Score

And the WINNER is...

RANDY WOLF!

SHOCKER…yes, I am quite surprised, but it’s true. By a little more than a nose, yes. I need to give him a break, I suppose…I have been heckling the Wolfman a little more than usual these days.

Before we start this round of jousting, let’s review Bill James' Game Score real quick.

In case you didn't know, "Game Score" is a neat and easy and FUN way to look at a starting pitcher's line in a Box Score and apply a basic formula on the stats to come up with a fundamental 'score' that "determines the strength of a pitcher in any particular baseball game.

To determine a starting pitcher's game score:

1.Start with 50 points.
2.Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched.
3.Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
4.Add 1 point for each strikeout.
5.Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
6.Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
7.Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
8.Subtract 1 point for each walk.

The maximum possible score in a 9-inning game with no baserunners allowed is 114, but of course this is possible only if the starting pitcher goes nine innings, strikes out every single batter he faces, and faces no more than 3 batters per inning. The exception to this gets a little hairy mathematically, but is never impossible...because this is baseball.

FYI, the highest game score for a 9-inning game in the history of baseball happened on May 6, 1998, when Kerry "Kid K" Wood famously struck out 20 Astros at Wrigley Field. Yowsah, that Game Score was 105.

So I thought it would be a "hoot" to compile Game Score for all SP during the postseason; I started this at the close of the League Division Series; you can review the LDS results at this post. Now that the League Championship Series is over and we’re going to the WORLD SERIES...here are the LCS results, and the top 5 winners:

Randy Wolf (62) 10/13/11 MIL @ STL NLCS G4
Doug Fister (59) 10/11/11 TEX @ DET ALCS G3
Rick Porcello (54) 10/12/11 TEX @ DET ALCS G4
Max Scherzer (53) 10/10/11 DET @ TEX ALCS G2 - TIE
Matt Harrison (53) 10/12/11 TEX @ DET ALCS G4 - TIE

Quite a change, overall in the top 5 scores themselves, compared to the LDS top 5 (range was 84-72 in the LDS top 5). Right off the top of my head, I would imagine that one contributing factor in the difference in overall scores was more or less attributable to the ‘clinch pitching change’ tactic employed by each of the 4 teams playing in the series, particularly in those crucial Game 6 situations. In the LDS, 38 starting pitchers worked an average of 5.71 innings (or, more accurately in baseball math: 5.2 innings). In the LCS, 24 starting pitchers worked an average of 4.8 innings (again, 4.2 innings in baseball math). So this off-the-cuff theory could have some weight.

Another wacky reality: Randy Wolf had the lowest score among the 38 SP in the LDS. Uh-huh.

Other interesting notes I made, regarding the top 5:
Only 1 NL pitcher appeared in the top 5 (Wolf, at number 1)
The top 3 pitchers earned their scores at home (Wolf, Fister, Porcello)
3 of the top 5 (the bottom 3, in fact) earned “No Decisions” as SP
Of those 3, both teams were the Detroit Tigers and both times the Tigers lost the game
Only 1 SP in the top 5 saw his team advance to the World Series (Harrison)
No Cardinals pitchers made the top 5
Two of the top 5 scores were from SP in the same game (10/12/11 TEX @ DET ALCS G4)

In general (all 24 pitchers with starts in the LCS):
Lowest score – Max Scherzer (20) 10/15/11 DET @ TEX ALCS G6
Lowest score, 4 innings minimum – Jaime Garcia (26) 10/9/11 STL @ MIL NLCS G1
Lowest score by a winning pitcher – Zack Greinke (36) 10/9/11 STL @ MIL NLCS G1
Average Game Score by SP in the 2011 LDS: 41.41

I will now officially revoke my honorary Randy “ERA” Wolf nickname. Until next year.

For now…#HappyFlight

You can review my work on the spreadsheet on Google Docs.

I will continue to tally the Game Score for the World Series, and post the results when that FINAL phase of the postseason is over. Then we can look at a Postseason Sweepstakes review…who will win it all??

If you enjoy my work, I encourage you to spread the word via Twitter
(I am @yoshiki89), and also please leave a comment!

Monday, October 10, 2011

2011 League Division Series - Best Pitchers*

* according to Bill James' Game Score

And the WINNER is...

CHRIS CARPENTER!

Now before you say "DUH" let's review Bill James' Game Score real quick.

In case you didn't know, "Game Score" is a neat and easy and FUN way to look at a starting pitcher's line in a Box Score and apply a basic formula on the stats to come up with a fundamental 'score' that "determines the strength of a pitcher in any particular baseball game.

To determine a starting pitcher's game score:

1.Start with 50 points.
2.Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched.
3.Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
4.Add 1 point for each strikeout.
5.Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
6.Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
7.Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
8.Subtract 1 point for each walk.

Thursday, May 12, 2011

5/12/11 Kansas City Royals 11, New York Yankees 5

Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Game 3 of 3

Hello, Eric Hosmer…welcome to Major League Baseball!

This was my first “official” look at Hosmer in a Royals uniform. I already had this broadcast dialed in a few weeks prior, as an out-of-market fan I try to catch every Royals TV broadcast I can manage to (except for those on ESPN, my boycott is still in full force). When Hosmer was called up by the Royals to appear in his first MLB game ever on May 6, 2011, I was sure to be watching this broadcast, even though it was against the high-media-profile Yankees.

I was certainly not disappointed.

On gameday, the Yankees series is tied 1-1 and the Royals were 20-17, in 2nd place in the AL Central and 3-1/2 games behind the surprising Cleveland Indians. Hope springs eternal! Calling up Hosmer as early as they did controversially reduced his definitive playing time for the Royals by one year. Will the callup improve the Royals’ chances for an AL Central crown, or even anything beyond that? Only time will tell.

After a rocky start for the year (1-2 in 4 starts and 2 relief appearances, including a blown save, 3.41 ERA) Sean O’Sullivan’s outings are getting longer (5 innings on his first start, 8 innings in his last start) and he’s boasting a consistent, yet unformidable average Game Score of 58 over those 4 starts. His opponent today, Ivan Nova, is faring somewhat better in the W-L category, but is a bit inferior in ERA and Game Score, mostly hampered by a few rough starts; when the Yankees need him the least, he’s starting to catch up. But not tonight.

Nova is roughed up “right off the bat” (pun totally intended) as the Royals clobber little Ivan during a ferocious 6-run 2nd inning. Nova would leave the game in the 4th without recording an out, allowing 10 hits total and 8 runs (4 ER) buffered by 19 total bases (including 3 doubles and 2 HRs). Amaury Sanit makes his MLB Debut and attempts to keep the lid on the Royals, he lasts through the 8th with 3 more ER to his credit, with the Royals up 11-4 on the Yankees.

Hosmer’s family is in attendance, and gets to see him plunk his 2nd HR in as many series (not to mention his 2nd MLB career HR), he finishes the game going 3-for-5 with 2 RBI and 7 total bases.

This is the Royals’ first series win in New York since August of 1999, ending the longest winless road series in MLB. The Royals are rubbing their eyes with a season-high 16 hits. The amazing item of note is, despite the final linescore you see above, consider the following:

Royals: Team LOB = 12, Team RISP = 6-15 (.400)
Yankees: Team LOB = 5, Team RISP = 2-6 (.333)

It’s hard to put one’s finger on ‘what went wrong’ here, other than kudos to O’Sullivan and Blake Wood in relief for handcuffing the Yankees where it counts the most…and caveat to the Royals for producing such a level of offense (against such a flaccid pitching staff) yet stranding so many baserunners in the process. The ‘glass half full’ analysis is: the Royals beat the crap out of inferior pitching performance. The ‘glass half empty’ analysis is: the Royals stand the chance of being shelled in return should they face a pitching squad just a few percentage points better than this one, in similar circumstances.

An early Eric Hosmer callup isn’t going to sway the risk of the latter in having an effect upon their season.