2011 World Series - Best Pitchers*

* according to Bill James' Game Score

And the WINNER is...DEREK HOLLAND!

Another entry into the DUH! Column during my Postseason Game Score review, but this quaint exercise wasn’t intended to overstate the underobvious…Holland’s performance in Game 4 was nearly “Carpenter-worthy,” by these numbers alone.

Before we start this round of jousting, let’s review Bill James' Game Score real quick.

In case you didn't know, "Game Score" is a neat and easy and FUN way to look at a starting pitcher's line in a Box Score and apply a basic formula on the stats to come up with a fundamental 'score' that "determines the strength of a pitcher in any particular baseball game.

To determine a starting pitcher's game score:

1.Start with 50 points.
2.Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched.
3.Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
4.Add 1 point for each strikeout.
5.Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
6.Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
7.Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
8.Subtract 1 point for each walk.

The maximum possible score in a 9-inning game with no baserunners allowed is 114, but of course this is possible only if the starting pitcher goes nine innings, strikes out every single batter he faces, and faces no more than 3 batters per inning. The exception to this gets a little hairy mathematically, but is never impossible...because this is baseball.

FYI, the highest game score for a 9-inning game in the history of baseball happened on May 6, 1998, when Kerry "Kid K" Wood famously struck out 20 Astros at Wrigley Field. Yowsah, that Game Score was 105.

So I thought it would be a "hoot" to compile Game Score for all SP during the postseason; I started this at the close of the League Division Series; you can review the LDS results at this post. I then continued with the League Championship Series; you can review the LCS results at this post. The fall classic is over…now begin the DARK TIMES!! Let’s look at Game Score for the 7 games of the WORLD SERIES then…the top 5 winners:

Derek Holland (82) 10/23/11 STL @ TEX WS G4
Jaime Garcia (77) 10/20/11 TEX @ STL WS G2
Colby Lewis (64) 10/20/11 TEX @ STL WS G2
Chris Carpenter (59) 10/24/11 STL @ TEX WS G5
Chris Carpenter (57) 10/19/11 TEX @ STL WS G1

Here we see more variation among the top 5 than in the LCS. Also, observing that the median (51.5) and mean (53.1) in all WS Game Scores is similar to the same values found in the LDS (median: 50, mean: 50.6), right around the 50-53 range. In the LCS, the median (41.5) and mean (41.4) were nearly ten points below this baseline. What we know now is that the LCS really didn’t feature as much stud pitching strength as the WS and LDS did.

In the World Series, 14 starting pitchers worked an average of 5.45 innings (in baseball math, a little closer to 5.1 innings), closer to the average innings of the LDS (5.2) than the LCS (4.2). I attributed the drop in innings (and, in some statistically weighted hindsight, the overall Game Score values) during the LCS to ‘clutch pitching change’ strategy. Did we see this in the World Series? Sure thing…but with less games as a sample, I suppose the difference didn’t impact the overall score.

What’s interesting to note is that if Holland had stayed in for just one more out, he would have usurped Chris Carpenter’s LDS-topping performance according to Game Score by only one point…that’s how damn good he was!

Other interesting notes I made, regarding the top 5:
Chris Carpenter occupied 2 of the top 5 slots (3 of the top 6), for his highest score he was not awarded a decision and the Cardinals lost the game.
The 2nd highest score in the top 5 also got a “No Decision” and the Cardinals lost the game (Garcia).
The top 2 pitchers earned their scores at home (Holland, Garcia).
3 of the top 5 earned “No Decisions” as SP (Garcia, Lewis, Carpenter).
2 of the top 5 scores occurred in the same game (Garcia, Lewis; WS G2).
The NL dominated the top 7 games scored out of 14, with 4 of the 7…which also happens to be the line on the NL Cardinals’ World Series win; 4 games to 3.

Apparently, bullpen strength prevailed where Garcia and Carpenter did not in Game 2 and Game 5 (but they still were strong as SP, according to Game Score).

In general (all 14 pitchers with starts in the WS):
Lowest score – Matt Harrison (35) 10/22/11 STL @ TEX WS G3
Lowest score, 4 innings minimum – Matt Harrison (39) TEX @ STL WS G7
Lowest score by a winning pitcher – Chris Carpenter (55) 10/28/11 TEX @ STL WS G7
Average Game Score by SP in the 2011 World Series: 53.1

You can review my work on the spreadsheet on Google Docs.

This was a fun exercise from me. I’m hoping I’ve encouraged some of you to try Game Score at home or at the ballpark on your own sometime.

If you enjoy my work, I encourage you to spread the word via Twitter
(I am @yoshiki89), and also please leave a comment!

10/28/11 Texas Rangers 2, St Louis Cardinals 6

Busch Stadium, St Louis, MO
2011 World Series Game 7

TLR in suspended shock as David Murphy’s fly ball to Left-Center field is about to land in Allen Craig’s glove…


The Cardinals finish the series in what would have been a relatively exciting game, but in comparison to game 5 and game 6 the yawn factor was induced for some viewers…but not for me. This game had a lot of thrilling and tactically interesting moments; it was less than a “cake walk” as suggested by some, and more of an example of how a team whose chances of winning go from slim to none to all the way in just a few games.



Chris Carpenter had a fantastic start, not anything akin to his 3-hit shutout of the Phillies on October 7th in the LDS, but hey…

The critical flaw for the Rangers tonight had to be the almost predictable short start of Matt Harrison, but only marginally so…the concept of tournament baseball notwithstanding, Harrison’s 3 ER in 4IP could have been met with another reliever other than Scott Feldman, who gave up 2ER (on 2BB and a HB, more on this in a moment) in 0.2 innings. Would bringing CJ Wilson down instead of Feldman in the 5th inning have changed anything? Probably not, but after some of the relief pitching miscues from the Ranger’s stall in the 2010 World Series, you might wonder…as I do.

A lead-off hit by Ian Kinsler, given the circumstances of Game 6, lethally ignites the Rangers and simultaneously threatens to stun the home crowd at Busch Stadium. Yadier Molina’s subsequent put-out of Kinsler attempting to steal 2nd base on an 0-0 count to Elvis Andrus slammed a rally door shut, symbolically, so early in the game. The Rangers still manage to eke out 2 runs during this frame after Andrus walks and Hamilton doubles him in, followed by a textbook Michael Young RBI double scoring Hamilton, but from where I was sitting the Kinsler CS was a bold statement by the Cardinals.

In response, to further underline this, Matt Harrison walks Pujols and Berkman with 2 outs. David Freese, in his first at-bat since his historic walk-off win in Game 6, drives a deep fly ball into the gap in left-center to tie the game.

Allen Craig delivers a 1-out HR courtesy of Harrison in the 3rd, putting the Cardinals in the lead. Harrison sweats a lot in the 4th inning, allowing 2 Cardinals to reach on back-to-back singles with 1 out. He breaks 2 of Skip Schumaker’s bats in the same AB; Schumaker grounds out to 1B, Carpenter flies out to RF to end the inning, stranding both baserunners, and Harrison is done for the evening.

Scott Feldman picks up the ball in the 5th…again, why not CJ Wilson? After retiring Theriot (and breaking his bat as well) Feldman walks Allen Craig and hits Albert Pujols, who both advance on a Lance Berkman groundout… that’s 2 on, 2 outs, and David Freese is intentionally walked so that Feldman can pitch to Yadier Molina. Freese is 1-for-2 so far; I have no strength as a baseball strategist, but I am a vocal dislike of the intentional walk, even in “obvious” situations. So to me, this is less than obvious as to why Freese gets the IBB; I would give Mike Napoli a free pass way before David Freese but nonetheless, Molina is UNintentionally walked, walking in a run and giving the Cardinals a 2-run lead.

Just so you know, Matt Harrison also broke Pujols’ bat in the 3rd…so that’s a total of 4 BLS (Broken Louisville Sluggers, from my scoresheet notation) in the game, 3 of them by Harrison…

CJ Wilson’s very first pitch in relief of Feldman hits Rafael Furcal (who was shockingly 2-for-2 in this game, after being so silent offensively for so long), which allows Pujols to score. Feldman is charged with the run, Wilson shuts down Schumaker to end the inning, and is dominant until he is replaced by Mike Adams to start the 7th.

The real story from this point on is the Cardinals’ bullpen, carrying Chris Carpenter’s torch and handcuffing the Rangers for the rest of the game. Well, they had some help from Allen Craig in the 7th, who majestically robbed Nelson Cruz of a sure-fire solo HR in the 6th, but the line speaks for itself, the bullpen allowed no hits and no runs for the rest of the game, exclamation point.

And thus endeth by far, the best World Series I think I’ve seen in many, many years.

Cardinals win 4-3



If you enjoy my work, I encourage you to spread the word via Twitter
(I am @yoshiki89), and also please leave a comment!

10/22/11 St Louis Cardinals 16, Texas Rangers 7

Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, TX
2011 World Series Game 3

Prince Albert makes his mark…

In only the 3rd game of the World Series, a World Series that is so far one of the best in recent memory, we’ve already seen 2 great games but didn’t have to wait long for a truly “historical” event to occur.



This one will certainly be remembered as ”The Pujols Game” for as long as Albert’s career will stand it…a dedicated response to his otherwise historically flat postseason performances, this year and in years past. Pujols’ first 2011 World Series hit in the 4th after a groundout to 3B in the 1st begins what would end as a 5-for-6, 6 RBI, 3HR outing; his 14 total bases establishes a new World Series record. If the line doesn’t cross your eyes, the highlights will.

But wait, it’s not just 3 homers…it’s 3 back-to-back homers, the third of which ties a World Series record for the most HR in a single WS game, a record also held by Babe Ruth and Reggie Jackson.

You can bet that if I had access to Photoshop, I would have added a picture of Nyjer Morgan here, with his eyes crossed, steam rising from his ears, sitting at home watching the game with a soda straw stuck in his teeth…

In what may erupt later (depending on how the series swings) as a “botched call” similar in scope (if not in urgency) to the controversial Don Denkinger call in the 1985 World Series, 1B ump Ron Kulpa completely and absolutely fouls up the call on this play at first during the 4th inning…Holliday was certainly out, but as the play didn’t affect the tide of the game (same as the 85 WS call, where that call wasn’t missed anywhere nearly as much as this one was) there would be no point in screaming about it any more than just about everyone watching it did at the time. Assume Holliday was the 2nd out, and assume further that all 4 of those runs in the 4th never happened…the Cardinals still win. Officials can make mistakes, Kulpa was in a peculiar POV, but it’s still kind of hard to understand how this one flew so far out of hand.

In less interesting review, Matt Harrison and Kyle Lohse both had very un-interesting outings, neither pitcher able to complete more than 11 outs.

During the 7th, a fan is ejected when a corny rubber white ball is thrown into the outfield in what seems to be an attempt to confuse Matt Holliday. TLR argues “fan interference” (by the letter of the ‘law,’ no fan touched the ball in play, so no fan interference) but you can almost bet that he would, as millions of Cardinals fans know that a mere shift in the direction of the wind can result in Holliday with something bruised or strained.

Cardinals lead the Series 2-1



HEY, I want your feedback!
If you enjoy my work, I encourage you to spread the word via Twitter
(I am @yoshiki89), and also please leave a comment!

2011 League Championship Series - Best Pitchers*

* according to Bill James' Game Score

And the WINNER is...

RANDY WOLF!

SHOCKER…yes, I am quite surprised, but it’s true. By a little more than a nose, yes. I need to give him a break, I suppose…I have been heckling the Wolfman a little more than usual these days.

Before we start this round of jousting, let’s review Bill James' Game Score real quick.

In case you didn't know, "Game Score" is a neat and easy and FUN way to look at a starting pitcher's line in a Box Score and apply a basic formula on the stats to come up with a fundamental 'score' that "determines the strength of a pitcher in any particular baseball game.

To determine a starting pitcher's game score:

1.Start with 50 points.
2.Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched.
3.Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
4.Add 1 point for each strikeout.
5.Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
6.Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
7.Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
8.Subtract 1 point for each walk.

The maximum possible score in a 9-inning game with no baserunners allowed is 114, but of course this is possible only if the starting pitcher goes nine innings, strikes out every single batter he faces, and faces no more than 3 batters per inning. The exception to this gets a little hairy mathematically, but is never impossible...because this is baseball.

FYI, the highest game score for a 9-inning game in the history of baseball happened on May 6, 1998, when Kerry "Kid K" Wood famously struck out 20 Astros at Wrigley Field. Yowsah, that Game Score was 105.

So I thought it would be a "hoot" to compile Game Score for all SP during the postseason; I started this at the close of the League Division Series; you can review the LDS results at this post. Now that the League Championship Series is over and we’re going to the WORLD SERIES...here are the LCS results, and the top 5 winners:

Randy Wolf (62) 10/13/11 MIL @ STL NLCS G4
Doug Fister (59) 10/11/11 TEX @ DET ALCS G3
Rick Porcello (54) 10/12/11 TEX @ DET ALCS G4
Max Scherzer (53) 10/10/11 DET @ TEX ALCS G2 - TIE
Matt Harrison (53) 10/12/11 TEX @ DET ALCS G4 - TIE

Quite a change, overall in the top 5 scores themselves, compared to the LDS top 5 (range was 84-72 in the LDS top 5). Right off the top of my head, I would imagine that one contributing factor in the difference in overall scores was more or less attributable to the ‘clinch pitching change’ tactic employed by each of the 4 teams playing in the series, particularly in those crucial Game 6 situations. In the LDS, 38 starting pitchers worked an average of 5.71 innings (or, more accurately in baseball math: 5.2 innings). In the LCS, 24 starting pitchers worked an average of 4.8 innings (again, 4.2 innings in baseball math). So this off-the-cuff theory could have some weight.

Another wacky reality: Randy Wolf had the lowest score among the 38 SP in the LDS. Uh-huh.

Other interesting notes I made, regarding the top 5:
Only 1 NL pitcher appeared in the top 5 (Wolf, at number 1)
The top 3 pitchers earned their scores at home (Wolf, Fister, Porcello)
3 of the top 5 (the bottom 3, in fact) earned “No Decisions” as SP
Of those 3, both teams were the Detroit Tigers and both times the Tigers lost the game
Only 1 SP in the top 5 saw his team advance to the World Series (Harrison)
No Cardinals pitchers made the top 5
Two of the top 5 scores were from SP in the same game (10/12/11 TEX @ DET ALCS G4)

In general (all 24 pitchers with starts in the LCS):
Lowest score – Max Scherzer (20) 10/15/11 DET @ TEX ALCS G6
Lowest score, 4 innings minimum – Jaime Garcia (26) 10/9/11 STL @ MIL NLCS G1
Lowest score by a winning pitcher – Zack Greinke (36) 10/9/11 STL @ MIL NLCS G1
Average Game Score by SP in the 2011 LDS: 41.41

I will now officially revoke my honorary Randy “ERA” Wolf nickname. Until next year.

For now…#HappyFlight

You can review my work on the spreadsheet on Google Docs.

I will continue to tally the Game Score for the World Series, and post the results when that FINAL phase of the postseason is over. Then we can look at a Postseason Sweepstakes review…who will win it all??

If you enjoy my work, I encourage you to spread the word via Twitter
(I am @yoshiki89), and also please leave a comment!