11/19/11 Salt River Rafters 9, Surprise Saguaros 3

Scottsdale Stadium, Scottsdale, AZ
Arizona Fall League Championship Game

It’s a great day in Arizona every day during the Arizona Fall League season, but in the championship game this year, it was all Arizona…Arizona Diamondbacks, that is… This is Diamondbacks prospect David Nick, who went 4-for-4 with a HR for the Salt River Rafters in their Military Appreciation game victory over the Mesa Solar Sox on November 11 (scoresheet coming soon!).

The Rafters featured not one, but two Diamondbacks prospects in their pitching tonight; add Nick and fellow D-back Adam Eaton to their lineup and for this game at least, you’ve got a lock.



Brewer took the mound against Marlins prospect Alex Sanabia, whose only transgression was a 2-run 2nd inning and a solo HR for Nolan Arenado in the top of the 3rd. Brewer, on the other hand, yielded a 2-run tater with nobody out to my favorite Panamaian Christian Bethancourt. After 4 innings, Sanabia was lifted for hard-throwing Adam Liberatore and Brewer was replaced by Diamondbacks prospects Adam Woodall (2IP, 0H, 0R, 1K) and Kevin Munson (02.IP, 0H, 0R, 1K).

The Rafters had a barely comfortable 1-run lead to begin the top of the 7th, when the ball went to Jeremy Jeffress. I was happy to see him in the Rising Stars Game, but after all he’s been through…this wasn’t his best outing. He face 5 batters, only recorded one out, allowed 2H, 4R, 1BB and 1 wild pitch. In doing so, the Saguaros train was derailed and the Rafters earned nothing less than a modest victory.

The surprise for me (no AFL pun intended) was David Nick. The Military Appreciation game was the first I’ve heard of him, and now I’m very intrigued. He’s not an OPS beast per se, but he’s had a great run so far in 3 seasons of Minor League ball (.751 OPS in Missoula (Pioneer League), South Bend (Midwest League), and Visalia (California League)). With Visalia in 2011, in 132 games he struck out 80 times, hit for 253 total bases, and walked 30 times. By comparison, in South Bend the previous year he struck out 97 times, hit for 181 total bases, and walked 41 times. His performance has been fairly consistent, as in 2011 AFL his OPS was .756, with a modest 34 total bases in 22 games. He’s no Bryce Harper or Wil Meyers, but these numbers are comparable to the AFL stats of high-profile prospects such as Nick Franklin and Mike Trout (ahem!). David Nick is not stud prospect material (you probably won’t see him in any top 10 lists), but at 21 years old, he seems to have some spark and potential, and hey…he’s fun to watch on the field, which is an all-around win for fans like me.


SCOREKEEPER’S NOTE: Let’s talk about Fielder’s Choice plays with NO PUT OUTS!
From the rules, 2.00 “Terms and Definitions”:

FIELDER’S CHOICE is the act of a fielder who handles a fair grounder and,instead of throwing to first base to put out the batter-runner, throws to another base in an attempt to put out a preceding runner. The term is also used by scorers (a) to account for the advance of the batter-runner who takes one or more extra bases when the fielder who handles his safe hit attempts to put out a preceding runner; (b) to account for the advance of a runner (other than by stolen base or error) while a fielder is attempting to put out another runner; and (c) to account for the advance of a runner made solely because of the defensive team’s indifference (undefended steal).

A very common scorekeeping misconception for some is that a Fielder’s Choice play typically results in a put out…while this is true most of the time it certainly isn’t a “typical” situation. For me, the key element to consider in scoring a Fielder’s Choice play of any kind is that “fielder’s choice” is shorthand for “batter-runner reaches on a fielder’s choice,” anything else that occurs during the play or as a result of the play (a run scored, a PO, an error, etc) doesn’t determine the scoring of a Fielder’s Choice…the fact that the batter-runner reached a base and/or advanced is enough. For those who are new at scorekeeping, thinking in these terms makes the determination quick and easy as long as you consider that if a fielder exercises an option to make a play other than putting out the batter-runner, it’s a Fielder’s Choice, period.

In this game, we see two examples of a Fielder’s Choice play without a put-out; one of them is strictly textbook, the other not so much.

In the top of the 7th, with Adam Eaton on first, Jake Goebbert on third, and 1 out, Tim Wheeler hits a sharp grounder to Leury Garcia. Garcia fields the ball quickly and has 3 options:
• Field the ball to 1B, put out Wheeler, then Goebbert may score
• Field the ball to 2B, put out Eaton, then Goebbert may score
• Field the ball to C, put out Goebbert if he tries to score, or keep him at 3B to load the bases
The Rafters are only up by one, there’s only one out, and Jeffress hasn’t really started the meltdown on the mound that’s yet to come for him, so any of these options are viable as long as he can make the assist, which also assumes that the receiver can make the play. Garcia decides to prevent the run from scoring and fields the ball to Bethancourt. Unfortunately, Bethancourt doesn’t make the tag; Goebbert scores and nobody is out. This is a textbook “fielder’s choice, no PO” play. If you charge a batter for a groundout on a fielder’s choice when another baserunner is PO, you wouldn’t do it here since there is no out. The batter does get an RBI, and the run is earned by the pitcher.

An earlier Fielder’s Choice play with no PO in the top of the 2nd inning isn’t really a textbook example. Ben Paulsen is on second base, David Nick is on first; with 1 out Jason Castro hits a chopper to Leury Garcia. Garcia fields the ball a few steps away from the bag at 2nd and has a real opportunity to make the play unassisted at 2nd to force out Nick. He dives toward the bag, extends his arm painfully, but Nick reaches the bag as Garcia is unable to make the tag and Castro reaches first base on the play. I emphasize this to further illustrate the scoring thought process I elaborated on in the previous example. Novice scorekeepers may observe this play as, perhaps, a hit(*) for Castro; however, the way the ball is hit and the speed of the runners gives Garcia one option for a play with two outcomes, this is the “non-textbook” aspect of this play and how it’s scored. In the previous example there were more options and even more outcomes, so the Fielder’s Choice ruling is a bit clearer. Here, the fielder made a decision and the decision allows the batter-runner to reach base regardless of the outcome, as it were, without a PO. Think about it this way: if Garcia had made the tag successfully and Nick was out, it would still be a Fielder’s Choice…if Garcia had been more than a few steps away from the bag, probably deeper in the field, and didn’t have an unassisted play option, you would probably rule that a hit. If the ball wasn’t a chopper and was, for instance, a sharp ground ball that was fielded cleanly with enough time and space for Garcia to make the play and he couldn’t do so, then the situation is more arbitrary and based upon Garcia’s effort, you could rule a hit or even an error.

(*)Of course, as I’ve said before, this is your scoresheet, you can do whatever you want –especially if you are ruling on an error- but in this case, I strongly recommend that you consider the rules as they pertain to Fielder’s Choice. Ruling this a hit probably wouldn’t result in an appeal or something of that nature, but when an error isn’t a factor you want to make your best effort to be consistent in your interpretation of the rules in your ruling.

On my scoresheet, I made notes next to each player in the lineup as to what MLB parent organization they belonged to.




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2011 Baseball Prospectus NL/AL Projections – How Did They Do?

Let me start this out by affirming that projections are pretty wacky, in theory and practice. Particularly in baseball, where you have 30 teams in 2 leagues and 6 divisions and 162 games of sheer madness, with trades, call-ups, DL stints, fried chicken and beer popping up over the course of 6 gruesome months. You can calculate and pythagorize all you want, stuff happens that nobody can see coming and that’s that.

For the past couple of years, I’ve always enjoyed recording season projections when they are out, so that I can drag them out at the end of the season and compare. I use these projections quite profusely as part of my Fantasy draft strategy, so they are quite important to me. They are also important to many others, for all kinds of fans. This year, I thought it would be fun to share the “before and after” results with my readers, in the event you might be sitting at a bar or at your local Laundromat and a stranger should ask “hey, how about them Cards…did anyone think they had a chance to do so well in the NL Central?” Now you can answer that question.

The folks at Baseball Prospectus are making some decent money compiling and providing statistical data and analysis for use by chumps like me as well as for very important folks in the baseball business. They certainly do know what they are doing. They have ultimato respect from everyone who reads their work, whether the information is used casually or used professionally.

I purchase their handbook on an annual basis, and enjoy their work immensely. I am not a subscriber, as this is too expensive for my budget (I’m not being paid to be a Baseball Enthusiast) but if you have the cash flow, you really should consider subscribing to their exclusive content, as well as shelling out a couple of bucks for the annual handbook.

The purpose of this is not to say “look, they were way off on this” but to compare side-by-side what the projections were, and to identify some criteria by which to analyze the comparison at a very high level, and then to draw some sort of conclusion that is less than obtuse and lightly informative. There is no “right” or “wrong” in projections (predictions are a different story…); there is only the data, the distribution, and how you analyze it and use it for whatever you need it for.

The “actual” performance data presented here was compiled from Baseball-Reference. Here are the key data points I studied and compared from both sources:
W-L
Wpct (Win percentage)
RS (Runs scored)
RA (Runs allowed)
Rdiff/G (Run differential = Runs allowed – Runs scored per Game, average over 162 games)
Teams are listed in ‘ranking’ by WPct as reported by Baseball Prospectus as well as Baseball-Reference.

Focusing on the ‘slot positions’ for each team within their division is, in my opinion, a negligible analysis point. Any stat head will probably agree with me that comparing the projected ‘rank’ of two teams in their division with their final ‘rank’ is somewhat interdependent of discrete performance statistics, such as Win-Loss percentage (or, really, Win percentage). Aside from the obvious situation of a team projected to win their division that eventually comes in last in their division (or vice versa), there’s not much to discuss in regards to comparison aside from what you can clearly see…at least not by me and not in this review. I chose instead to gauge “how did they do?” by comparing WPct by utilizing a figure that I’m sure I didn’t invent but that I will call XPctDiff, or “Expectation Percentage Differential.”

Is that sexy or what?!?

XPctDiff is found by subtracting the projected WPct of a team from the actual WPct, you will get a positive or negative number based on if they did better (positive) or worse (negative) than they were projected to. Remember, final ranking is negligible!! Then you can look at how close or how far off each team’s projection was and in what direction, if you like. The smaller delta (percentage difference) defines a projection that was more spot on, the larger delta is one that was spotty. You can click on the images to see the data better in your browser window.

I will also briefly review the Rdiff/G value, in terms of improvement (positive) and deficiency (negative) over projection, for leaders and blowers in each league.

Let’s start with the National League:One thing is obvious: Nobody really can tell how to call the NL West (remember last year’s Padres?!?). This year’s Diamondbacks seemed to be last year’s Padres, with the most noticeable difference in the ranking, and also the highest XPctDiff in the entire league.

In the NL East, the Phillies (positive) and the Marlins (negative) had the largest XPctDiff, tied at .081 each. In the case of the Phillies, the difference had no bearing on their ranking; I know I said I wasn’t going to focus on ranking comparisons, but I had to point this out in order to lend some validity as to why I say “final ranking is negligible. The closest call by BP in this division was on the Braves, with an XPctDiff of .012 positive value. Among all 30 teams, this was their second most accurate projection. In regards to Rdiff/G the Phillies ended up with an 0.6 improvement over projection, the second largest improvement over this projected figure in the National League…that’s a testament to that pitching staff of theirs, as the fewer RA made the biggest difference (they scored 30 fewer runs than projected). The Marlins, on the other hand, had an 0.7 deficiency over projection, with a shift in more RA than RS yielding that value; their Rdiff/G decline was tied with the Giants for the largest deficiency over projection in the National League, who (like the Marlins), allowed more runs than they scored against projection.

The most accurate WPct projection among all 30 teams was the Pirates in the NL Central. At an XPctDiff of a scant .006, their WPct was only one game off. The Brewers were the largest value, .068 better (positive) than projected. As we enter the World Series, I should also note that the Cardinals performed .025 better than projected, a modest value but it shows you in one respect how a good run in September can benefit a team!

The NL West shows a wild finish, 2 teams (the Diamondbacks at .111 better – but still not the largest XPctDiff among all 30 teams- and the Rockies at .074 worse (negative) than projected) had abnormally large XPctDiff in the National League. BP was most accurate with the Dodgers, who finished .022 worse than projected. The Diamondbacks finished with the largest improvement over projection in terms of Rdiff/G with an 0.7 value.

And now…the American League:Here we have a beast similar to the NL West, where the AL Central seems to be the hardest division to nail down from a projection standpoint. It sheds a different light on the current fan reaction to the so-called “Red Sox Collapse” and the opposite of this reaction by fans of the Twins in regard to their performance this season, suffering even greater than the Royals were projected to.

In the AL East, the most accurate projection was undeniably the easiest call to make…for several years, the Yankees have been the easiest team in terms of performance projection, their XPctDiff was .025 better than projected. By comparison, the Orioles, who started very strong this year, finished with a rather large .074 XPctDiff. The Orioles also had the second largest deficiency in the American League over projection for Rdiff/G with -0.9.

Who had the largest Rdiff/G deficiency in the American League? We move to the AL Central for this answer, where as previously noted, was the wildest of the 3 divisions. The Twins quietly collapsed (where the Red Sox were so damn noisy about it), falling to an MLB highest .123 XPctDiff and an MLB highest 1.0 Rdiff/G deficiency over projection. OUCH. The most accurate WPct projection was the White Sox, who posted a League-lowest .018 XPctDiff value in winning only 3 games less than projected.

A few years from now, we might see a day where the AL West is as easy a division to project as the NL Central seems to be; as long as the Rangers keep playing like the Rangers, that is. They blew off the doors this year (much to Lance Berkman’s chagrin, but he’s so classy he admits his mistake after the fact), finishing better than expected, with an XPctDiff of .068, tied with the Angels for the largest value (the Angels also finished with a positive XPctDiff value). Also of worthy note, and what Berkman needs to know, is their Rdiff/G improved 0.9 over projection; like the Phillies they allowed far fewer runs than projected. The Mariners were BP’s most accurate projection in this division, with an XPctDiff of .024, only 4 wins less than projected.

At an overall high level, in light of the results of Postseason so far, the BP projections really only ‘missed’ with the NL West and the AL Central. Those of us who reviewed their data before the season began can only say we were surprised by the rise of the Diamondbacks and the fall of the Twins.

That being said, Twins fans are great people…they aren’t complaining about this very much.

Enjoy the World Series; I’ll be back soon to review the MLB Network NL/AL Predictions! I’ve dusted off the DVDs I have of the 2 specials they aired in late March, and will review their calls and what really happened. This review will be quite different; less statistics, of course…but they made predictions, which are way different than projections.

Thanks mega thanks again, to the folks at Baseball Prospectus (as well as Baseball Reference) for everything they do to give geeks like me something to write about. It’s all good.

If you enjoy my work, I encourage you to spread the word via Twitter
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10/1/11 Arizona Diamondbacks 1, Milwaukee Brewers 4

Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI
NLDS Game 1

You can count on it, Yovani Gallardo is pretty good at pitching.

The postseason begins as the surprising Arizona Diamondbacks take on the also surprising (but certainly less surprising) Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park, where visiting teams tend to fall. Ian Kennedy is a great pitcher, but Gallardo…whoa. Even after a shaky start to his season, he is pitching like Yovani Gallardo when it matters the most: Right here, right now.



Ryan Braun has a great game (3-for-4, 2H, 3 total bases, 2 runs scored, 1 broken bat, 1 flyout), but most fans are used to hearing this. His stunning outfield assist that caught Willie Bloomquist at home with Jonathan Lucroy waiting was very impressive, but I’m still rubbing my eyes at Jerry Hairston, Jr. I hear myself and others saying “well, looks like the real Jerry Hairston, Jr. came to play baseball” and that’s kind of an understatement. His 15 minutes of baseball fame are here, right now. He made two very distinctive defensive plays at 3B, the second of which was a ginormous charge for a 5-3 groundout by Justin Upton.

Gallardo, on the other hand, throws a tidy gem in the process, 8IP, 4H, one R (earned on an 8th inning HR by Brian Roberts), 8K and a BB. And as usual, he looks like he’s about to yawn the entire time.

John Axford earns a save on a 3-up, 3-down inning of work…he pitched for the “closer cycle” with a flyout, a groundout, and a strikeout. And the moustache is looking very outrageous and phenomenal these days.




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Scorecard skans - UPDATES

As promised, some updates - all posts updated with skans:

As we're playing those darn Dodgers next week, I realized I hadn't updated this treasured 2009 outing, the shining moment of a rather brutal series from nearly a year ago when the blues visited Wrigley.

5/30/09 Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs

3 Cubs Spring Training games for your perusal:
3/6/10 Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
3/14/10 Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Angels
3/19/10 Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox

Last but not least, several updated posts from Opening Week and beyond...
4/5/10 Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels
4/6/10 San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
4/8/10 Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves
4/12/10 Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs (Cubs Home Opener)
4/16/10 Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs
4/30/10 Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians

4/29/10 Arizona Diamondbacks 13, Chicago Cubs 5

Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Game 1 of 4



They call it…sayonara…



It was a dismal day in Chicago as the struggling Diamondbacks succeeded in lighting up Ted Lilly in a most horrendous fashion. At the end of the 7th, Lilly had been replaced by both Jeff Gray and James Russell, Ian Kennedy had only allowed 1 run (earned) and 4 meager hits, and the Cubs were doing nothing worth mentioning, with the D’backs leading 13-1. I’m not even going to waste my time with the details on the whomping the Cubs took in the bottom of the 7th. You can have a look at the scoresheet.

With the bottom of the order (Geovany Soto and Tyler Colvin) starting the bottom of the 8th, you could feel the drawstrings of doom circling around the Cubs’ throats. With Ryan Theriot batting at the top of the order, and being 1-for-3 with an RBI in the 3rd…well, heck, he was the only offense out of the dugout thus far, so how much worse could it get? Better was certainly not an expectation.

Up until this point, the best part of the game was Pat and Ron’s discussion on baseball bats. For your edification, Santo used an S2 model Louisville Slugger.

Soto has become a more patient hitter since 2009, this patience resulted in a well-earned base on balls to lead off. Colvin then reached on a throwing error by replacement 1B Rusty Ryal (Ryal came in for Adam LaRoche, who left the game after hitting 2 back-to-back homers and an RBI double…this was obviously the Diamondbacks trying to help the Cubs out). Theriot up next singles on a grounder to RF and suddenly the bags are loaded for Kosuke Fukudome. The Cubs needed a rally, and they got one.

Fukudome gets his pitch and launches a tater into left field. His first MLB career Grand Slam. Didn’t exactly come close to evening the score, but it certainly put crooked numbers up and helped us end the game with something less than a black eye and sore testicles.

Ganbarre, Fukudome-san!!

4/6/10 San Diego Padres 6, Arizona Diamondbacks 3

Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ

Fun game; keeping a close eye on the Padres (my 'other favorite NL team') and also scouting the D-Backs for the upcoming 4-game series with the Cubs.

SD 6 10 1
ARI 3 7 0

Chase Hedley sporting some great 3B 'hot corner' defensive plays. This was Edwin Jackson's debut as a Diamondback...he pitched well, but would soon try to forget this outing.

Bud Black's 2010 Padres are looking remarkable, 6 solid shut-out innings by the 'big guy' Chris Young and some great run support, particularly thanks to smokin' Evereth Cabrera.

Diamondbacks pitcher Esmerling Vasquez has got the most insane inside curve I've ever seen. Crazy movement.

Fox Sports Arizona broadcast, called by Mark Grace and Daron Sutton.