2011 World Series - Best Pitchers*

* according to Bill James' Game Score

And the WINNER is...DEREK HOLLAND!

Another entry into the DUH! Column during my Postseason Game Score review, but this quaint exercise wasn’t intended to overstate the underobvious…Holland’s performance in Game 4 was nearly “Carpenter-worthy,” by these numbers alone.

Before we start this round of jousting, let’s review Bill James' Game Score real quick.

In case you didn't know, "Game Score" is a neat and easy and FUN way to look at a starting pitcher's line in a Box Score and apply a basic formula on the stats to come up with a fundamental 'score' that "determines the strength of a pitcher in any particular baseball game.

To determine a starting pitcher's game score:

1.Start with 50 points.
2.Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched.
3.Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
4.Add 1 point for each strikeout.
5.Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
6.Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
7.Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
8.Subtract 1 point for each walk.

The maximum possible score in a 9-inning game with no baserunners allowed is 114, but of course this is possible only if the starting pitcher goes nine innings, strikes out every single batter he faces, and faces no more than 3 batters per inning. The exception to this gets a little hairy mathematically, but is never impossible...because this is baseball.

FYI, the highest game score for a 9-inning game in the history of baseball happened on May 6, 1998, when Kerry "Kid K" Wood famously struck out 20 Astros at Wrigley Field. Yowsah, that Game Score was 105.

So I thought it would be a "hoot" to compile Game Score for all SP during the postseason; I started this at the close of the League Division Series; you can review the LDS results at this post. I then continued with the League Championship Series; you can review the LCS results at this post. The fall classic is over…now begin the DARK TIMES!! Let’s look at Game Score for the 7 games of the WORLD SERIES then…the top 5 winners:

Derek Holland (82) 10/23/11 STL @ TEX WS G4
Jaime Garcia (77) 10/20/11 TEX @ STL WS G2
Colby Lewis (64) 10/20/11 TEX @ STL WS G2
Chris Carpenter (59) 10/24/11 STL @ TEX WS G5
Chris Carpenter (57) 10/19/11 TEX @ STL WS G1

Here we see more variation among the top 5 than in the LCS. Also, observing that the median (51.5) and mean (53.1) in all WS Game Scores is similar to the same values found in the LDS (median: 50, mean: 50.6), right around the 50-53 range. In the LCS, the median (41.5) and mean (41.4) were nearly ten points below this baseline. What we know now is that the LCS really didn’t feature as much stud pitching strength as the WS and LDS did.

In the World Series, 14 starting pitchers worked an average of 5.45 innings (in baseball math, a little closer to 5.1 innings), closer to the average innings of the LDS (5.2) than the LCS (4.2). I attributed the drop in innings (and, in some statistically weighted hindsight, the overall Game Score values) during the LCS to ‘clutch pitching change’ strategy. Did we see this in the World Series? Sure thing…but with less games as a sample, I suppose the difference didn’t impact the overall score.

What’s interesting to note is that if Holland had stayed in for just one more out, he would have usurped Chris Carpenter’s LDS-topping performance according to Game Score by only one point…that’s how damn good he was!

Other interesting notes I made, regarding the top 5:
Chris Carpenter occupied 2 of the top 5 slots (3 of the top 6), for his highest score he was not awarded a decision and the Cardinals lost the game.
The 2nd highest score in the top 5 also got a “No Decision” and the Cardinals lost the game (Garcia).
The top 2 pitchers earned their scores at home (Holland, Garcia).
3 of the top 5 earned “No Decisions” as SP (Garcia, Lewis, Carpenter).
2 of the top 5 scores occurred in the same game (Garcia, Lewis; WS G2).
The NL dominated the top 7 games scored out of 14, with 4 of the 7…which also happens to be the line on the NL Cardinals’ World Series win; 4 games to 3.

Apparently, bullpen strength prevailed where Garcia and Carpenter did not in Game 2 and Game 5 (but they still were strong as SP, according to Game Score).

In general (all 14 pitchers with starts in the WS):
Lowest score – Matt Harrison (35) 10/22/11 STL @ TEX WS G3
Lowest score, 4 innings minimum – Matt Harrison (39) TEX @ STL WS G7
Lowest score by a winning pitcher – Chris Carpenter (55) 10/28/11 TEX @ STL WS G7
Average Game Score by SP in the 2011 World Series: 53.1

You can review my work on the spreadsheet on Google Docs.

This was a fun exercise from me. I’m hoping I’ve encouraged some of you to try Game Score at home or at the ballpark on your own sometime.

If you enjoy my work, I encourage you to spread the word via Twitter
(I am @yoshiki89), and also please leave a comment!

10/23/11 St Louis Cardinals 0, Texas Rangers 4

Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, TX
2011 World Series Game 4

FEAR the MOUSTACHE…

One could have expected just about anything out of Derek Holland tonight, but certainly an outing like this wasn’t on the radar!!



You just can’t say he had a great outing…that’s just too friggin’ easy. He had the outing of his career, I think. Just based on the lack of expectations alone, if your head was not spinning when he walked off of the mound, you aren’t human.

Postseason is the focus here, so here’s how Holland did in his last 3 postseason starts, compared to how he did tonight:


OUCH. I heard Ron Washington had a talk with him about keeping his cool and not getting so “amped up.” Good talk, Rusty.

You can see it in his eyes…he is VERY COOL right here.

So what did the Cardinals have? Offensively, not much…they were pretty much hand-cuffed. Defensively, John Jay steals a sure-thing HR from Nelson Cruz, and Yadier Molina runs one of his “Yadier Molina” class pickoffs of Ian Kinsler on a 2-3-6 play to end the 2nd inning.

This was payback for a Molina groundout to Kinsler to end the top of the 2nd; a play that would have made Brooks Robinson blush at 3rd base…

The tension was broken in the 6th inning by another Mike Napoli bomb, a 3-run HR to deep left field. I use the term “tension” because Derek Holland was on the mound and the Rangers only had 1 run on the board. There wasn’t much tension after that.

Holland’s pleas to Washington to leave him in the game were to no avail…I still think he could have closed the game. Still. Derek Holland has been one of my favorite pitchers for a couple of years now. I’m glad he was able to add a postseason gem such as this to his resume.

Series tied 2-2




He said WHAT?!? Click on this link to see Tim McCarver’s Quote of the Game

HEY, I want your feedback!
If you enjoy my work, I encourage you to spread the word via Twitter
(I am @yoshiki89), and also please leave a comment!

10/1/11 Tampa Bay Rays 6, Texas Rangers 8

Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, TX
ALDS Game 2
Tampa Bay leads the Series (1-0)

Not much of a moustache…really…

The hashtags this baseball season have gone from the most arcane of inside humor (#countrybreakfast) to the stark raving bizarre (#want) to the predictable (#beastmode), but the raves that #staching has generated has me wondering, truly, what this season would have been without Twitter.

Not to be excluded from the throwback moustache movement, The Rangers’ Derek Holland did, indeed, attempt to sport his own. An attempt that seems to have frozen on his face in the first five minutes of his growth, but that hasn’t hindered his success since the attempt.



I’ve been a supporter of Holland, more or less, since last year. Seeing him come to the mound, with post-season ‘stache still threatening to occupy real estate on his lip someday, I wondered if the fuzz made him look a lot younger than he did without it. But I wasn’t wondering how he’d do tonight against James Shields and the Rays.

This ALDS series has me a bit confused, as far as ‘rooting’ for someone. I find it about as much more difficult to root “against” the Rays than I find it to root “for” the Rangers…and vice-versa. Both teams are excellent, and I really would like to see them both win. But only one can win, and tonight the Rangers trail the Rays after the first game and the overwhelming (and deserved) hype of Matt Moore’s start against the Rangers last night.

A rocky 1st inning and a Matt Joyce 2-out 2-run HR in the 4th found Holland standing his ground and doing well. Not as well as his line would suggest (5IP, 6H, 3R – only one earned, as Joyce’s blast brought in a runner that reached due to Holland’s error), Holland’s command was there most of the time but when it went, so did a few close situations…the Rays stranded 5 baserunners during his innings of work.

After his exit, the Rays just kept on coming back…particularly in the 7th when Koji Uehara pitched to 3 batters, all 3 scored on a Longoria HR with no outs recorded. I almost vomited when Darren Oliver was brought in to relieve Uehara, but he neatly retired the next 3 batters to end the inning.

As for the Rangers…they just did what Ron Washington likes to do the most, staying in front of the long ball Rays by moving baserunners; Mitch Moreland’s 1 out HR in the 8th was the first Rangers HR of the series.

I’m not going to subscribe to the moustache theory just yet…I’m still looking at this year’s Rangers with last year’s Rangers in the back of my mind. But Derek Holland is a pretty good pitcher. I don’t think now is the time to shave off the fuzz.

SCOREKEEPER'S NOTE: Regarding earned runs, I made a theological error on my scoresheet, where I recorded that all 3 of Holland's runs were earned. Yes, 2 of the 3 runs allowed by Holland came in due to an error by Holland. Casey Kotchman would have been the 3rd out; Holland fielded the ball poorly, allowing Kotchman to reach 1st, followed by Joyce's HR. My gut is to always chalk this up as "the pitcher was charged with the error, so he earned that/those run(s)." As much as I hate to admit it (and do so every time I make this mistake), the rules are clear:

10.16(e) "An error by a pitcher is treated exactly the same as an error by any other fielder in computing earned runs."

For this fact, from the rule book, I have no defense...regardless of my typical rule where "it's my scoresheet and I can do whatever the heck I want to."




HEY, I want your feedback! If you enjoy my work, I encourage you to spread the word via Twitter (I am @yoshiki89), and also please leave a comment!